Saturday
19 May 2012

The Day Ahead: Futures Point to Added Declines After Thursday's Pause E-mail

Since the June application numbers were appear endure Thursday, oil prices accept collapsed added than 10%, including a bead to as low at $59.59 per butt in London markets today. In backward June awkward oil was trading at added than $73 per barrel. The International Energy Agency said they apprehend oil burning to access in 2010, but predicted that this year burning would abide weak.

Economic ambiguity is belief on equities as well, which attending to accessible lower Friday morning advanced of the account Trade Balance report and the aboriginal account attending at Consumer Confidence.

“Risk abhorrence is aback from a one-day vacation on affair that all-around blooming shoots may be bent on the vine,” said BMO economist Sal Guatieri.

With equities continuing to fall, Treasuries are rallying. The 10-year crop is now at 3.34%, down 6 base credibility overnight, appearance a huge gap amid the 4% ante apparent in mid-June.

Key Releases Today:

8:30 ― It’s been a apathetic anniversary in agreement of abstracts but the Trade Balance will be the highlight. Analysts apprehend exports to advance hardly as imports abide to fall, consistent in all-embracing advance in the barter deficit. The accord looks for a $28.8 billion arrears in May, afterward a $29.2 billion gap in April.

“In April, there was a abundant steeper bead in absolute appurtenances exports (down 4.3%) than in absolute appurtenances imports (down 2.7%), and we apprehend to see a alteration for May, with absolute appurtenances exports apparently up slightly, but imports still falling,” said forecasters from IHS All-around Insight in a account note.

“Increased aircraft exports should help,” they added. “Working in the adverse direction, the bill for alien oil should increase, although the appulse of college oil prices will be abject by a abridgement in the aggregate of oil imports. In the additional bisected of the year, we apprehend to see imports animating afore exports, as the U.S. abridgement begins to balance advanced of a lot of of the blow of the world.”

10:00 ― It seems abundant too aboriginal to appraise customer affect in July, but that’s not endlessly Reuters and the University of Michigan from publishing basic results. Expectations are that affect will advance hardly to 71.5, additional in allotment by falling oil prices, but softer equities could just as able-bodied put a arrest to four months on convalescent sentiment.

“We anticipate the banderole Michigan amount today will dip to about 69 from 70.8, with a lot of of the bottomward burden advancing from the expectations component,” said HFE arch US economist Ian Shepherdson in a applicant note. “We apprehend a added bead in the August report, and anemic spending through the summer.”

10:00 ― Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner testifies afore two bodies ― the House Financial Services Committee and the Agriculture Committee ― on derivatives regulation.

 
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